Will Minnesota’s $12B budget surplus hold up?

Minnesota has a  *projected* 12-billion-dollar budget surplus which the 2022 legislature couldn’t decide how to use — but the question is, how much of it will still be there when lawmakers get a new economic forecast in a few weeks?  Clark Goldenrod with the Minnesota Budget Project says the 7-or-so billion in the current two-year budget cycle is fairly sure — but much less certain is the forecast five-billion-dollar surplus for the following two years:

“This biennium the picture is looking really good.  The real question is, once we start looking into the future — so the 2024-25 biennium — what that looks like.”

A mild recession is predicted through the middle of next year, which might eat into the budget surplus if tax collections drop and spending on safety-net programs increases.